ANALYSIS: WHEN, WHY & HOW DID UMNO DECLINE?

By: Besari Bin Md Daud, DPA, BAS
Date: 14 April 2025

1. Timeline of UMNO's Decline

• 📉 2008 – First political tsunami (lost 2/3 majority)
• 📉 2013 – GE13 (UMNO dominant, but BN lost the popular vote)
• 📉 2018 – GE14 (First ever downfall since independence)
• 📉 2022 – GE15 (Only 26 seats, worst in history)

2. Seven Major Reasons for the Decline

• Massive corruption scandals (1MDB, SRC, etc.)
• Autocratic leadership (cult of personality)
• Internal divisions (Team A vs Team B)
• Loss of support from younger Malays (under 40)
• Rising cost of living (GST, price hikes)
• Alienation of non-Malays (Perkasa, racial politics)
• Social media & open information (a more aware electorate)

3. Soundtrack of the Decline

• 🎵 "We Are Not Puppets" (Najib era)
• 🎵 "1Malaysia" (Good slogan, opposite in practice)
• 🎵 "Debt Isn’t Poverty" (1MDB irony)

These anthems became ironic memes as UMNO’s credibility weakened.

4. Recovery Efforts That Were Made

• 🔸 Cleaning up the party (but half-hearted)
• 🔸 Leadership reshuffle (Zahid replacing Najib)
• 🔸 Reform promises (but old-style politics persisted)
• 🔸 Collaboration with PH (MoU for transformation)

But most of these efforts were seen as “too little, too late”.

5. Who Took Action?

• UMNO leaders themselves (half-sincere attempts)
• Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC)
• The people (votes and protests)
• Social media (as a critique platform)

6. Reform Methods: The Right vs Wrong

✖️ Wrong Approaches:

• Cosmetic changes (same culture, new faces)
• Playing racial cards (no longer relevant)
• Empty promises (Cash handouts, etc.)

✔️ Right Approaches (But Rarely Used):

• Financial transparency of the party
• Giving voice to grassroots members
• Multiracial cooperation

7. Why Did It Become a Circus?

• “Cash is King” mentality – Rampant money politics
• Echo chamber – Only hearing their own applause
• Arrogance of power – Thinking UMNO is too big to fall
• Misplaced focus – Obsessed with internal power struggle

UMNO lost its way because it fought reality instead of facing it.

8. Bonus: When Can UMNO Rise Again?

✅ If these 3 radical changes happen:

• Eliminate money politics (Transparent nomination system)
• Return to core struggle (For people, not positions)
• Create a new narrative (Relevant to youth)

UMNO can rise again – but not the UMNO we knew 20 years ago.

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#UMNOisFalling
#ButCanRebuild
#IfWillingToChange

Leave your comments below if you agree with this analysis!
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📧 Email: 9w2yab@gmail.com

[Source: SPR data, Merdeka Center Survey, UMNO Political Analysis 2024]